The CGC Census and GPA recorded sales
CGC Galleries
CGC opened to the public and began grading comic books on January 1, 2000. The first five years of CGC grading resulted in just over a half million (518,030) graded comic books on the CGC Census by the end of 2004.
GPAnalysis (GPA) began recording sales of CGC graded comic books soon after CGC was introduced to the market. By the end of 2004, GPA had recorded 241,672 sales for CGC graded comic books which represents 46.7% of the CGC Census total of 518,030 graded comics in the first five years of CGC.
The CGC Census and the GPA recorded sales numbers can be compared, but does this comparison make sense?
It’s not possible to know how many times a single CGC graded comic book has been sold publicly and privately. If a CGC graded comic book has been sold five times, and GPA records three of those sales, it is still only one CGC graded comic from the CGC Census. Collectors who submit comics to CGC may not sell at all, such as a book graded for a personal collection. Some collectors prefer to purchase CGC graded comic books to receive the third-party grading opinion, but they open the CGC case and store the book with their collection as if it was “ungraded”.
In these three examples, there would be:
Three comic books on the CGC Census
Six total sales (public and private)
One book with three recorded sales
One book with no sales
One book counted on the CGC Census but no longer encapsulated
Just three examples complicate what could possibly be known. Since the CGC Census already had more than half a million comics by the end of 2004, it has always been impossible to know everything about every book and every sale.
Since a single CGC graded comic may have multiple sales recorded on GPA, the comparison between the CGC Census and GPA sales would be useful if the GPA sale also recorded the CGC serial number (unique identifier on each CGC graded comic). By the end of 2004, only 4% of GPA sales had the CGC serial number recorded. By the end of 2014, more than 1,730,000 sales were recorded on GPA. The CGC Census at the end of 2014 had more than 2,460,000 comic books.
Through the years, GPA continued to increase the number of sales recorded and the details about each sale. The CGC serial number was also recorded by GPA for more than 1,200,000 sales. With the CGC serial number recorded, it is possible to determine how many books on the CGC Census have a recorded sale on GPA. At the end of 2014, GPA had recorded at least one sale for 932,028 different CGC serial numbers since GPA began nearly fifteen years earlier. The CGC Census had 2,463,940 comics.
More than one-third (37.8%) of CGC graded comics had at least one recorded sale on GPA at the end of 2014.
It is also possible to determine how often CGC graded books are sold according to GPA.
For the 932,028 different CGC serial numbers with at least one recorded sale on GPA:
60.7% had one recorded sale from 2000 to 2014
25.2% had two recorded sales
8.0% had three recorded sales
2.5% had four recorded sales
2.3% had between five and nine recorded sales
1.4% had ten or more recorded sales
Because GPA cannot record every sale (public and private), there will always be additional sales which have occurred which are not recorded by GPA. Because some CGC graded comics are not sold, but remain in the submitter’s collection, some percentage of comics on the CGC Census have zero sales.
Additionally, the CGC Census always represents the maximum number of CGC graded comics in the hobby. When a comic is graded by CGC and removed from the CGC holder, the CGC Census is not adjusted unless the label is also returned to CGC. As a result, every comic listed on the CGC Census has up to the number of CGC graded copies listed, but some portion of the CGC Census represents comics which are no longer encapsulated. If an unencapsulated book is resubmitted to CGC, it will be added to the CGC Census again, though it is only one book being counted twice on the CGC Census. The counts on the CGC Census are the maximum number of encapsulated books and may be higher than the actual number of books CGC encapsulated at any given time.
At the start of 2024, the CGC Census contains 10,212,987 graded comics. GPA has recorded 5,766,497 sales. There are 4,053,288 different CGC serial numbers with at least one sale recorded in GPA.
At the end of 2014, 37.8% of the CGC Census had at least one recorded sale in GPA.
At the start of 2024, 39.7% of the CGC Census has at least one recorded sale in GPA.
For the 4,053,288 different CGC serial numbers with at least one recorded sale on GPA:
61.2% had one recorded sale from 2000 to 2023
24.3% had two recorded sales
8.3% had three recorded sales
2.8% had four recorded sales
2.2% had between five and nine recorded sales
1.2% had ten or more recorded sales
It is interesting that about 60% of the GPA recorded sales have only one sale. This leaves about 40% of the CGC serial numbers having two or more sales. For those 40%, it is 60% again for exactly two recorded sales, or 24% (60% of 40%). After measuring the actual percentages as 61.2% for one sale and 24.3% for two sales, the remaining 14.5% of CGC serial numbers have three or more sales. Once again, nearly 60% have exactly three recorded sales. 60% of 14.5% is 8.7%, and the measured number is 8.3% for exactly three GPA sales.
In summary
Using the CGC Census and GPA recorded sales for nearly 25 years, it can be estimated:
40% of the CGC Census has at least one sale recorded on GPA
60% of the CGC serial numbers recorded by GPA have only one sale from 2000 to 2023 (61.2%)
24% of the CGC serial numbers recorded by GPA have two sales from 2000 to 2023 (24.3%)
8% of the CGC serial numbers recorded by GPA have three sales from 2000 to 2023 (8.3%)
3% of the CGC serial numbers recorded by GPA has four sales from 2000 to 2023 (2.8%)
2% of the CGC serial numbers recorded by GPA have five to nine sales from 2000 to 2023
1% of the CGC serial numbers recorded by GPA have ten or more sales from 2000 to 2023
Additional analysis is needed to determine whether these percentages are consistent for CGC graded comic books of different ages and publishers. For CGC graded comic books which have sold more than once according to GPA, it will be interesting to see the average gain or loss for sale prices compared to elapsed time between sales. Future analyses will tackle these questions and others for those who are interested in more details about the hobby.
