What Creates Comic Demand?
Many comic collectors are interested in comic book value, which can broadly be conceptualized by supply and demand. In a previous article, I covered the supply part (i.e., rarity). In this article, I’ll cover demand, starting with the basics, overviewing historical trends, and closing with nuanced considerations for the advanced collector.
The Basics of Demand
According to https://www.loc.gov, The Library of Congress boasts a collection of over 140,000 separate comic book issues; all are not created equal. Most are far removed from the collective consciousness of collectors and are worth no more than the slowly-decomposing paper they are printed on. Others are so desirable that die-hard fans are willing to take out second loans on their houses for a chance at a copy (which I don’t recommend). Why are some comic books so much more desirable than others? For many of us, demand is induced by nostalgia. Something in that comic book links back to a formative part of our lives.
I remember my mom inserting a Captain America Mego figure into my 5-year-old birthday cake. When I went to bed at night, I slid under a Spider-Man bedspread. When I woke up in the morning, I watched Superfriends and Spider-Man and His Amazing Friends. Superheroes were as deeply rooted in my memories as any family member. Recollections like these are why we are drawn to old funny books.
Keston’s Cake for Fifth Birthday
Nostalgia often manifests itself through collectors like you and me feverishly trying to obtain notable appearances of our favorite superheroes. Speaking of which, there’s nothing more notable than a character’s first appearance. With rare exceptions, the issue featuring a major character’s first appearance is the most expensive. Lists of the most valuable comics are dominated by first appearances of superheroes.
How these first appearances are introduced varies. Sometimes, all signals point to this momentous occasion: Issue #1 of the eponymous title with a large representation of the character on the cover. The signal is not always as strong. For example, Wonder Woman first appears in All-Star #8. You’ll have to open the book to find her image.
Obvious First Appearance VS. Muted First Appearance
Closely behind first appearances are first issues of notable series. Detective Comics #1, Superman #1, and Amazing Spider-Man #1 are examples of notable first issues that are not first appearances.
First Issues But NOT Notable First Appearances
Another driver of demand is cover art. In fact, some comics, notable for little other than their cover art, have fetched six figures. And when a classic cover features a coveted superhero, watch out, demand skyrockets. Today, both The Overstreet Price Guide and CGC delineate classic covers in their descriptions of books. Several artists’ names appear over and over like Alex Schomburg, L. B. Cole, Creig Flessel, Lou Fine, and Frank Frazetta.
Classic Covers by Alex Schomburg, L. B. Cole, and Lou Fine Respectively
For those who would like to dive deeper into demand, I suggest checking out the 20th edition of the Overstreet Comic Book Price Guide from 1990. Bob Overstreet himself wrote a fantastic market report. Within it, he offered 12 criteria for evaluating something closely related to demand: the importance of a comic book issue. Based on the following criteria, he and colleagues evaluated hundreds of comic issues from 1933 to 1943, assigning them 0 (least important) to 6 (most important) stars:
Durability of the character(s)
Durability of the title
Popularity of the character(s)
First appearance anywhere of a major character
First issue of a title
Originality of character (first of a type)
First or most significant work of a major artist
Starts a trend
First of a genre
Historical significance
First of a publisher
First appearance in comic books of a character from another medium
Action Comics #1, the first appearance of Superman, was the only issue given six stars. Indeed, it lights up the criteria like a Christmas tree. Overstreet suggested it represents A, B, C, D, E, F, H, I, J. It wasn’t just that Action Comics #1 had some representation for most criteria. In some cases, it was also about the degree it met the criteria. For example, the character and title have been exceptionally durable and popular for decades. Plus, you know, it introduced the world to the most popular genre of superheroes and is undoubtedly the most historically significant comic book of all time. For further reference, examples of five-star books include Marvel Comics #1, Detective Comics #27, and Flash Comics #1. Although silver-age comics were not evaluated, I’m assuming Showcase Comics #4, Fantastic Four #1, and Amazing Fantasy #15 would have received five stars as well had the same criteria been applied.
The Only Comic to Receive Six Stars by Overstreet: Action Comics #1
Demand is Fickle
Several months ago, I flipped through a facsimile of the first Overstreet Price Guide from 1970 and wrote down every comic listed as $100 or more in Near Mint condition. Only 38 made the cut, with the most expensive being $300. Demand for comics has exploded since then; the market has followed. Today, in NM condition, there are certainly well over 38 separate issues that surpass the $100,000 threshold and several that surpass the $1,000,000 mark.
Superman #1, 8.0 Briefly Held World Record for Highest Sale Ever of a Comic Book
While the overall arc of comic demand and value has been positive, it has not always been a smooth ride. In my lifetime, I recall two “pullbacks.” The first was in the mid-1990s. Just prior, buying comics – even new ones – had become synonymous with investing. Speculators often bought dozens of the same issue betting on a future fortune. Publishers were eager to pour gas on the speculative flame by dumping new sexy titles on the market and adding gimmicks like foil and hologram covers. The bubble burst, local comic book stores shuttered by the hundreds, and collectors were left with long boxes full of junk. While the entire market was down, vintage comics were affected less so. Note that the bubble burst of the ‘90s may have had as much to do with too much supply as opposed to diminished demand.
Amazing Spider-Man 365 with Gimmicky Holographic Cover
The second pullback is occurring as I write this article and has been in play for nearly two years. As with the 1990s pullback, it was preceded by a bubble, this time Covid-19 induced. Comics had already been on a tear because of the consistent barrage of quality blockbuster movies in the 2010s. And, just when people thought demand couldn’t get any hotter, 2020 and 2021 introduced lockdowns, bored people, and stimulus money. The market kept climbing in 2022 and then gravity kicked in. Most of the comic market has taken a tumble since. Rare golden age books seem to be weathering the storm, but even they are showing some signs of weakness.
Hulk #1 in CGC 4.0 Shows the 2010s Frenzy, Covid-19 Bubble, and Correction
The main point is that the overall trend for comic books is positive: demand increasing overall, especially for vintage books. Comics have generally risen in value, sometimes dramatically, but not without intermittent setbacks.
Let’s move from the general market to demand within segments of the comic market. Going back to the comparison of the 1971 Overstreet Guide to today’s market, I was curious to find out which comics had remained atop the hobby’s pecking order and which had fallen from grace.
Like today, the two most expensive comics at the time were Action Comics #1 and Detective Comics #27; however, they were a tad more affordable at $300 and $275 respectively. In fact, the entire genre of superheroes performed well. On the other hand, once popular characters that had their origin outside of comic books have, relatively speaking, faded from prominence such as Tarzan, Popeye, and Prince Valiant.
Single Series 20 Was Once One of the Most Valuable Comics in the Hobby
In a recent video I posted, Matt Nelson, President of CGC, shared his broad-ranging perspectives on demand including the plight of Westerns. Nelson’s take was generational. In the ‘60s, ‘70s, ‘80s, and even ‘90s, a large portion of adult comic collectors grew up watching Western movies and TV shows. Their favorite heroes were characters and actors like the Lone Ranger, John Wayne, Gene Autry, and Tom Mix. Many of them had cowboy-inspired birthday parties and toys. However, unlike Superman, Batman, and Captain America, these cowboys – along with Tarzan, Popeye, Prince Valiant, and the like – have not enjoyed the same multi-generational durability.
Sometimes a dead genre can be brought to life. There’s no better example than romance books. Books that may have been in the dollar bins a couple of decades ago can now fetch hundreds, thousands, or occasionally tens of thousands of dollars.
Exquisite Matt Baker Art Graces the Cover of Cinderella Love Stories #25
Regarding individual issues, Nelson reminisced that demand for individual issues changed at a relatively slow pace prior to the 2000s. In the new millennium, an accelerant was poured into the market: Movies, by the dozens. An issue can receive a huge, fast boost to demand once a movie is announced. In some cases, if a movie is well received and followed by other successful movies, the boosts are sustained and build on one another. Avengers #1 is such a beneficiary. On the other hand, what Hollywood giveth, Hollywood can taketh away. For example, The Eternals movie did indeed deliver the typical demand boost to Eternals #1, but mediocre ticket sales and tepid reviews cooled demand. Subsequently, the book’s value collapsed. Now that we have the background of demand out of the way, let’s get into the nitty gritty.
Boost and Sustained Growth of Avengers #1 Due to Movies
Spike and Crash of Eternals #1
Demand Can be Nuanced
Knowing the issue of a book and the grade (e.g., Hulk #181, 8.0) is the foundation of determining the value of a comic book. GPAnalysis provides the most recent sale of the issue at that specific grade, the 90-day average, the last year’s average, etc. While issue and grade are undoubtedly the most important considerations for pricing a specific comic, advanced collectors know that there’s more to consider. Imagine two copies of the same book with the same grade. Depending on certain factors, one book may be much more desirable and thus in higher demand than another one. Those who can discern these differences are at a considerable advantage relative to those who only “buy the grade.” For the sake of scope, I will only be discussing what CGC would call Universal copies (i.e., blue-label books).
I offer five factors for your consideration, most of them involving eye appeal. Nelson noted that eye appeal especially plays a role in the lower grades as a low grade can be “achieved” in a number of ways. For example, a book may have received a 1.8 because of a completely split spine but look like an 8.0 otherwise. Whereas another copy of the same book might be beaten to hell and receive a 1.8, with the spine intact. Another example, with an even lower grade, is a book that is missing the back cover and deservedly receives a 0.5. I ask which copy of Superman #1 you would rather have? Onto the factors:
Superman #1 0.5 VS. Superman #1 0.5
Factor 1: Page Quality. For vintage books, page quality can vary from white, which conveys that fresh off the newsstand feel, to brittle, which means the paper is so decomposed that it is literally crumbling apart. For silver and golden age books, cream to off-white page quality is common and likely has a neutral bearing on demand. Pure white-paged books are particularly hard to come by and often receive a positive bump. On the other hand, books with poor page quality are avoided by many collectors. In fact, CGC caps the grade for slightly brittle books at a 6.5 and for brittle books at a 3.5. Nevertheless, even with the CGC grade adjustments, these books still take a hit in demand.
Brittle-Paged Batman #1, Crumbling Apart
Factor 2: Rusty Staples. Like page quality, rust on staples exists on a continuum. Most books have no rust, which is great. Many have barely discernible rust, which usually doesn’t adversely affect demand. On the other hand, sometimes rust has visibly migrated from the staples to the paper. Like brittle pages, this is a defect that will affect demand adversely even considering the grade.
Severe Rust Migration
Factor 3: Marvel Chipping. Unfortunately, the brightest era of Marvel comics is dogged by a manufacturing issue. According to the online CGC glossary, marvel chipping is “..a trimming defect that occurred primarily in 1960s Marvel Comics which produced a ragged edge around the comic book cover, most commonly in the form of tiny flecks or chips along the right side of the comic book.” Collectors prefer copies that have no or inconspicuous Marvel chipping.
Amazing Fantasy #15 with and without Marvel Chipping
Factor 4: Vibrancy of Covers. Speaking of 1960s Marvel books, if you see multiple copies of an issue at a Con, look closely at the colors. Do they look the same? Or, are there differences in brightness and vibrancy? They can differ dramatically. Sometimes it’s because a comic has been left exposed to the elements. The colors fade over time. But, other times – and perhaps more common – the discrepancy is due to color strike. Many golden and silver age comics are subject to this issue due to poor quality control. Sometimes, perhaps early in a print run, books came out with blazing colors. Later in the print run, not so much.
Publisher Fiction House is Notorious for Inconsistent Color Strike
Factor 5: Centeredness. How balanced is the design of the cover on an issue? Depending on how it was cut and wrapped, it could look perfect, it could be too high, too low, or even crooked. Sometimes, essential art can be cut off from the image due to an egregious mis-wrap. For some issues, collectors prioritize small differences. For example, collectors prefer copies of Tales of Suspense #39 that show the full double quotation mark at the end of "Iron Man," which is often cut off to varying degrees.
Tales of Suspense #39 with and without the Double Quotation Mark
Final Thoughts
Why people will plunk down huge sums of cash for a comic book may seem mysterious to those outside the hobby. For us, comic book enthusiasts, we realize that the common denominator is passion. Comic books and their related characters have been with many of us since we were kids. Nevertheless, the passion and demand for particular issues vary dramatically from issue to issue. Pioneering collectors like Overstreet and colleagues began disentangling the factors of demand many decades ago. Factors can range from the monumental, like a first appearance of a favorite character, to the minuscule, like quotation marks at the end of a word.
I’ll close with a word of advice. While it is undoubtedly important to know why some comics receive more demand than others, the hobby is much less fun if you are chasing what other people like. If you haven’t done so already, I encourage you to develop your own sense of what is desirable to you from the comics you purchase to the features of a comic book that look good to your eye.
Acknowledgements:
Thanks to Matt Nelson and Ben Labonog for our conversations about demand.
Images of comic books and posters from Heritage Auctions (HA.com) except for the Superman #1, which is from CGC.com.
Disclosures:
I own copies of Captain America Comics #1, Amazing Fantasy #15, Tales of Suspense #39, and Suspense Comics #3.
